LEGISLATIVE OUTLOOK FOR 2004
January 16, 2004
Congress returns to work on January 20, to face a glut of unfinished business, the most pressing of which is an omnibus appropriations bill covering 11 federal departments and assorted agencies. It may be fitting that the Senate's first vote of the year will be whether to take up the $328 billion spending bill, because the subject of money is certain to permeate nearly every debate that takes place throughout the year, beginning on February 2, when President Bush sends his fiscal year 2005 budget plan to Congress.
To spend or not to spend; what's the question?
If, as is likely, the Senate fails to muster the 60 votes needed to shut off a filibuster, the betting is that a second cloture vote will occur a few days later. If that vote fails, pressure will build for passing a year-long continuing resolution that caps federal spending for the affected federal departments at last year's spending level. (The current continuing resolution expires January 31.)
One way or another, the fiscal year 2004 spending issue should be resolved by early to mid-February. Congress will then quickly turn its attention to the fiscal year 2005 budget. Since this is an election year, there will be less time available to debate the budget-or other pressing issues for that matter-because of frequent and lengthy recesses. This includes breaks for the two political parties' presidential nominating conventions, and the need for House and Senate lawmakers to leave Washington early enough to allow for full- time campaigning before the November 2 election.
The fact that half-trillion dollar deficits are being projected for the future has already prompted budget hawks to question the resolve of the Bush administration to hold down federal spending. But the fact is that, of late, Wall Street and the business community have paid little attention to the growing federal deficit. And narrow majorities in both houses of Congress give some lawmakers more leverage to push for higher spending in the months leading up to the election, as GOP leaders work to demonstrate their ability to get legislation passed, regardless of its size.
It is hard to imagine how the politics of an election year will do anything but make the federal budget outlook worse.
Unfinished business on the agenda
While the budget will figure prominently in the legislative agenda, congressional lawmakers face a host of other issues as well. But election years are never very conducive for legislating, and this year the process may be complicated by the slightly divergent priorities of the Bush administration and congressional Republicans.
GOP lawmakers would like nothing better than an uneventful exit before the elections, while White House officials want to use the year to lay out the president's vision for the future-something, they say, his father failed to do. This could include laying out the first steps toward market-based Social Security reform and a major initiative designed to encourage long-term savings. Congressional leaders argue their agenda is already packed tight with "must-do" legislation, like energy policy, a controversial highway reauthorization bill, asbestos reform, welfare reform, Head Start and special education.
But other critical deadlines loom on the horizon, including the need to raise the debt ceiling, always an unpalatable topic during an election year. In addition, Congress hopes to complete work on much- anticipated pension legislation that will retroactively set the rate companies will use to calculate the contributions they must make to their pension plans. Because the Senate last year failed to finish work on the measure before a temporary fix expired, companies are now forced to use the 30-year Treasury bond rate, a benchmark that has dipped so low it could cost companies $30 billion in higher contributions. Unless the benchmark rate is changed, companies say they will be forced to freeze their pension plans. The new legislation would change the rate to a higher corporate bond rate for two years, a move that temporarily will reduce the amount that most companies will pay into their pension funds.
On another front, a modified version of class action legislation is expected to come up, setting the stage for a classic battle pitting the business community against consumer, environmental and civil rights groups.
For their part, Democrats are likely to seize some time in the schedule to seek a temporary extension of federal unemployment benefits and a hike in the minimum wage.
On the health front...
Despite passage of a landmark Medicare reform bill late in 2003, a number of health-related issues are still crowding the agenda.
Early in the session, Congress is expected to deliver on one of Senate majority leader Bill Frist's (R-TN) top priorities: additional funding to fight global HIV/AIDS. Another Frist priority-legislation to help lessen the shortage of human organs available for transplant-is also likely to pass.
In 2003, the House passed comprehensive medical malpractice reform legislation, but the Senate could not muster enough votes to break a threatened filibuster. A tack under consideration this year calls for narrowing the focus on specific areas where the cost of malpractice lawsuits threatens public health, such as ob-gyn and trauma care.
But the issue that may draw the most attention is the burgeoning number of those without health insurance.